Reality check?
Filed under: — Mikolaj at 
Yesterday, I have seen this on Teleread, then it got a lot of steam on Scoble. Well, the original title is over-dramatized, there’s no two words about it. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, so I will refrain from the “I’m oh so good willing” lines trying to prove a mobile phone is not a viable alternative to the $100 laptop.
So we have a Congolese woman trying to sell baskets:
- Did anyone check the actual coverage data?
If not, please do so, just for fun. Choose some African Country and see what’s the result. Since I want to be in line with the original post, let’s take the coverage in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Quite a couple of multi-thousand-dollar BTSes seem to be needed here… - Did anyone check the economic data?
Let’s take the GDP per capita from our Dem. Republic of Congo:
$774, not bad compared with $41,399 in the USA. How much would a phone call have to cost, so that the woman wanting to sell baskets a couple of cents each, could get even? And of course, so that the mobile operator could get even? Not to mention the price of data transfers. Give the 100 villagers a $40 phone, and build a BTS for them? For that cash alone, that’s a $100 laptop for everyone - Did anyone check the political situation?
In seems that in Democratic Republic of Congo, that’s no picnic either. Would the government in an unstable country be willing to give something as disruptive as access to podcasts and free media? - Who says there is any free market, which the mobile phones could drive? How does a basket - phone billing barter work?
Oh well, that’s just biased speculations of someone who remembers supermarkets with only vinegar on otherwise empty shelves in the communist Poland
You miss several points here (although my original post was also vague on several points):
On network coverage: Even with only about half the African continent covered it’s making a powerful difference already. And of course network coverage is an issue for OLPC, too, if you want communication outside the local mesh. But just as OLPC is valuable without Internet, so can a mobile phone be: it can run applications and form ad hoc local networks via Bluetooth (if that was in the spec).
Regarding the economic situation: Yeah, people are dirt poor. Doesn’t keep 97% of the population of Tanzania from having access to a mobile phone, though. I’m guessing that’s well above the US. As one of the articles I quoted states: “People would rather be without a shirt and trousers and they’d rather go for days without food, instead of not having a phone.”
Regarding the political situation: This is probably the #1 reason why mobile phones are critical for the region: to shift power back to individuals and away from despots. It’s happening right now. But for the record, we don’t need Internet or high speed data networks for mobile phones to be a boon (any more than OLPC does)
How does the free market enable banking and payments for goods and services via phones? Go read for yourself how it’s happening today: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/08/AR2006070801063.html
Cheers!
David, I got to your post through a link, so I haven’t seen there’s a newer one as I posted.
On network coverage: have a look at this gsm world coverage poster: http://www.coveragemaps.com/gsmposter.htm, that’s not exactly half of the continent - high coverage is only in South Africa, and on the Mediterranean coast. This of course does not prove anything, as by merely looking at the maps, Australian coverage is miserable compared to what we have here in Europe. But whereas nobody would build GSM (dominating standard in Africa) infrastructure amidst the Australian interior to cater for some desolate areas, I suppose that’s exactly the kind of areas in Africa which would benefit from OLPC. That’s why I made a point about puting out a BTS for a village. I may be overskeptical - I could easily imagine raising literacy through OLPC, I don’t see however, data services adoption by mostly illiterate people from rural areas. So I don’t quite believe in Bluetooth - based networks, unless it’s some weird voip over bluetooth.
Tanzania: it is such a bizarre figure, that - I am speculating here - I would rather ask what does it really mean “I have access”. In western world it would mean “I could use it more or less immediately”, but in a (there’s some sociological term for it, that I don’t remember) culture based on broad family ties, it could as well mean “my cousin knows someone who could let me use one”. As to economic situation, I doubt in sustainability of offering any mobile services in the middle of nowhere. Of course, OLPC would require some maintenance too, but providing uninterrupted services is a much different story.
As to the political situation, from our point of view undermining the despot is a great reason. But a despot is the one who controls the whole thing - he will pull the plug whenever he feels like it. OLPCs would do the job slower, in a more failsafe manner. By the way, African GSM has A5/2 encryption which is much weaker than what we have in Europe and America, wonder why…
To sum it up: I don’t think $40 mobile could contribute to development of remote rural areas, since a) it requires a huge investment in infrastructure b) we need to have funds to maintain that infrastructure, and that’s much more than we need to maintain the laptops c) that very infrastructure is controlled by the state.
And finally I have to agree with you - mobile phones are a boon. I wouldn’t say otherwise, doing SCM in mobile platforms :-)
Cheers!